Happy first day of March! It is the beginning of meteorological spring (meteorological seasons are defined on a calendar basis, with spring being from March 1 through May 31). March is also known for having wild temperature swings and plenty of windy days in the DC metro area.
Those exact conditions will play out in a defining way this weekend. The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning from 10AM through 7PM today. It will become increasingly windy with wind gusts to 40 mph. Combined with low humidity and a lack of significant precipitation over the past 10 days, there will be an increased threat for any fires to rapidly spread.
While temperatures have reached 60° this morning, temperatures will plummet starting this afternoon and continuing into the overnight. We will be down into the 30s by early evening, and morning lows on Sunday will be in the low 20s. Gusty winds will continue during this time.
For the rest of the day on Sunday, temperatures will only make it to the mid 30s. There will be enough of a breeze around to keep wind chills below freezing most of the day. Skies will be sunny.
We will be on a warming trend Monday into Tuesday. A strong storm system will impact the region on Wednesday. The potential exists for multiple hazards, including heavy rain, strong winds, and even severe thunderstorms.
​Forecaster Jason 

While temperatures reached the 60s this Tuesday in the DC area, winter is making a sharp return, with colder temperatures and wintry precipitation on the way. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the area from 9PM Wednesday through 10AM Thursday.
A surge of arctic air is pouring into the region tonight. Wednesday will start off with morning lows in the lower 30s, and afternoon highs will only be in the mid 30s. A storm system from the west will make its way into the area later in the afternoon into the evening. There may be a passing snow or sleet shower in the afternoon.
A higher chance for precipitation will come in the evening, which looks to be in the form of a wintry mix. There will likely be both sleet (ice pellets) and freezing rain (rain which leaves a glaze of ice). A coating of sleet and up to one tenth of an inch of ice accretion from freezing rain is expected. Icy conditions will likely impact the Thursday morning commute.
Temperatures are expected to reach the low 40s on Thursday. With additional waves of energy moving through, we will have plain rain during the day.
Friday will be dry with some sunshine. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s, but it will feel cooler with breezy northwest winds. Another system may impact the area on Saturday with rain or a rain/snow mix.
There are indications that a winter storm may impact our area during the first half of next week.

​Forecaster Jason 

While this week will end on a relatively mild note in the DC metro area with temperatures in the 40s on Saturday, a storm system will track through on Sunday that will likely bring snow to at least portions of the area.
A cold front will cross the region Saturday night, while a storm system begins to organize to our south. This will end up being a fast-moving coastal storm. As with many of these storms, it does appear as though the best chance for accumulating snow will be over northern and western areas. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for northern Montgomery and areas further to the north. This means that significant snowfall accumulations of 5 inches or more are possible. Locations to the south would be more likely to see lighter snowfall amounts.
Once this storm clears out, we will be set for the coldest airmass in years. By Tuesday, actual air temperatures will not get out of the teens, and overnight lows will be in the single digits. I am also following the potential for a winter storm to track through the Deep South Tuesday night. We will have to see how far north snow from this storm will make it.
Forecaster Jason 

Frigid temperatures have settled back in this Tuesday in the DC area, and we are beginning an extended stretch of brutally cold temperatures. While the temperature reached 50° in DC on Monday, there will not be that many more opportunities for temperatures to get anywhere close for the rest of January.
Flurries or a brief snow shower will be possible this Tuesday evening. I am not expecting any real snowfall accumulation, although I would not rule out a light dusting in some spots. Temperatures overnight will bottom out in the upper teens.
Wednesday will be windy and quite cold with high temperatures only reaching the upper 20s. Wind chills will stay in the teens. Skies will be sunny. Thursday, we will start off in the mid teens, with afternoon highs in the lower 30s. There will be more clouds around due to a system passing by to the north.
We may be able to get to 40° on Friday. A series of storm systems will head into the region over the weekend. There will be a chance for rain on Saturday. Rain chances may linger into Sunday, but there will also be the possibility for rain to end as snow. Intense arctic air will then follow early next week.
Forecaster Jason

The current trend in the latest computer model guidance is for a slight southern shift in the storm track for the upcoming winter storm. This will be a relatively long duration event with snow likely to begin around midnight Sunday night, and clearing out Monday night. There does still look to be a chance for sleet and freezing rain to mix in for a portion of the day on Monday south of DC. However, current indications are that there will still be a long enough period of all snow at the beginning and end of the event to make this a decent snowstorm for the entire region.
There is some question as to whether the heaviest band of snow sets up over the DC metro area, or further south in Southern MD. Right now I am leaning towards the heaviest snow being around DC. However, if the storm tracks a bit further south, then Southern MD would get clobbered. This would potentially result in a bit less snow over the DC metro compared to what I am forecasting. Wherever the heaviest band of snow sets up, snowfall totals may reach double digits.
Either way, it is looking like this will be an impactful storm for the entire area. With the cold airmass in place and the nighttime arrival, snow will stick to all untreated surfaces. This will make for dangerous travel conditions on Monday.
Forecaster Jason
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UPDATE on SNOW chances for the area:
A Clipper type system will cross the region on Friday, likely bringing a few rain and snow showers. I do not expect any snowfall accumulation for much of the area, although minor accumulations are possible for the far northern suburbs.
A more impactful system is expected Sunday night into Monday. This storm will be coming from the South. With a frigid airmass in place this weekend, snow is expected. However, the rain/snow may set up near or over us for part of the storm.
SCENARIOS: If the storm tracks along the southern edge of what is being shown in the computer models, then the DC metro area would have all snow for the event. In this scenario, there would be enough moisture for a significant snowfall. A more northern track would lead to snow falling at the onset, followed by a transition to rain over much of the area. Snowfall accumulations would be light. A third scenario would be in between these two, with a few inches of snow followed by mixed precipitation.
TIMING: At this point, computer models indicate snow beginning Sunday evening. There is some uncertainty as to whether precipitation would clear out by Monday afternoon, or if it would linger into Monday evening.
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Forecaster Jason 

A prolonged stretch of frigid temperatures will settle in later this week for the DC area, while there will be chances for snow over the next couple weeks.
As of mid to late afternoon this New Year’s Eve, a dynamic weather system is barreling towards the area. This will help set the stage for the upcoming pattern change. A line of strong showers and thunderstorms is tracking towards the area from central Virginia. This activity is getting ready to sweep through the far western suburbs, and will clear our area by 7PM.
The rest of the evening and overnight is looking drier. Temperatures currently in the 50s will fall into the lower 40s by late tonight. New Year’s Day will be cooler and quite windy. The National Weather Service has posted a Wind Advisory for the region, as wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible. High temperatures will be in the upper 40s with sunshine. However, it will feel colder with the wind.
Thursday, high temperatures will only be in the upper 30s. While it will not be quite as windy as on Wednesday, there will be enough wind to keep wind chills below the freezing mark.
A weak disturbance looks to cross the region late on Friday, possibly bringing a rain or snow shower. The weekend is looking cold and dry. Heading into Monday, a storm system from the south will be heading towards the East Coast. Right now it looks as though temperatures will be below freezing in our area on Monday. I will be watching to see whether this system tracks close enough for snow.
Forecaster Jason 

We will transition to a wetter pattern as we get closer to New Years.
For this Thursday, temperatures are heading up into the low to mid 40s. The extensive cloud coverage is due to a marine layer that has pushed in from the Atlantic. Some of these clouds may break up towards the end of the day. There will not be much change in our weather for Friday. Temperatures will start off in the upper 20s, and afternoon highs will be in the mid 40s. Expect partial sunshine.
The first in a series of storm systems will pass through on Saturday, bringing showers at times during the day. Temperatures will top out close to 50°. There may be a break in the rain early Sunday morning, but a stronger system will impact the region by the afternoon with more rain. It will also be breezy and warmer as temperatures head up to near 60°.
Right now, much of Monday and Tuesday look dry, but another chance for rain may come by the night of New Years. Mild temperatures will remain with highs well in the 50s.
​Forecaster Jason 

The arctic airmass in place this weekend will remain with us heading into Monday. Temperatures early Monday morning will dip down into the mid to upper teens in the DC metro area. Expect plenty of sunshine again during the day with high temperatures in the mid 30s.
A weak system will slide by to our north on Christmas Eve. This may provide a light wintry mix, particularly over the northern suburbs. Otherwise, expect some cloudiness in the morning. Temperatures will head up to around 40°.
Christmas Day will start off with lows in the upper 20s, and temperatures will top out in the lower 40s in the afternoon. There will be a mix of sun and clouds.
Dry and cool conditions will remain into Thursday and likely Friday. There may be a chance for rain by next weekend.
​Forecaster Jason 

Following the wet weather from earlier this week, another storm system is starting to move into the DC area. Rain will be overspread the region this evening. Rainfall amounts from this system will be around one quarter inch. While temperatures have held in the 50s this afternoon, it will not be this warm again before Christmas.
Thursday will be sunny but significantly colder. Temperatures will start off in the mid 30s in the morning, and afternoon highs will be in the lower 40s. It will be a bit windy with northwest winds at 15-25 mph, making it feel several degrees colder.
Friday, a storm system will develop off the coast. There will be a slight chance for a shower or two during the day, but much of the time looks dry. High temperatures will be in the lower 40s.
Saturday, temperatures will only top out in the upper 30s during the day, and it will be rather windy with northwest winds at 25-35 mph. This will result in subfreezing wind chills throughout the day. There will at least be sunshine. It will be even more frigid on Sunday. Morning lows will be around 20° and afternoon highs will struggle to reach 30°.
With a large dome of Canadian high pressure overhead, this wintertime airmass will hold into Monday. It does look like we will have a shot at getting back to 40° on Christmas Eve. Right now, Christmas Day is shaping up to have temperatures around average with highs in the mid 40s. No snow is expected, but we will have to see how the timing unfolds for the next storm system with rain.
​Forecaster Jason