2023/2024 winter forecast

Last week, we posted our official winter forecast for the winter of 2023/24 and got a TREMENDOUS amount of engagement. We are so glad you all liked it. In this post, I'm going to be a bit more detailed and show you what we look for when making a winter forecast. 

The first thing we look for is whether or not we are going to be in a La Nina or El Nino pattern. This is determined by the temperature of the water across the equatorial pacific. This winter, it is anticipated that we will have an El Nino winter, meaning warm waters in the equatorial pacific. This leads to an active branch of the southern jet stream, which should result in a fairly active season once we get into the heart of winter.  

This graphic shows the traditional track of the southern branch of the jet stream in a El Nino. However we expect a moderate to strong El Nino, so that jet stream (red arrow) should come a bit further north along the east coast. This will lead to a few chances for Nor'easters to impact our area. 

Another thing we look at is snow cover in Eurasia, and sea ice concentration over the Barents-Kara Sea. Both of these are indicators as to how much snow may fall across Maryland. Currently, there is both good snow cover in Eurasia, and substantial sea ice across the Barents-Kara sea. That's a good sign that favors above average snowfall for our area.

The image below is the snow cover map from Rutgers University as of November 13th showing significant/widespread snow cover in Eurasia. 

The final major factor we take into consideration is how long its been since the last major snow storm (18 inches or more). This is year 7 since the last big one (2016), and we average one of that magnitude every 5-7 years. For reference, since 2000, there has been a large snow event in 2003, 2009, 2010, and 2016. So its right on time this year. For this reason along with the aforementioned conditions, its plausible that we get 1 or 2 large snow storms this winter, particularly towards the end of January and into February. 

For these reasons (among others), we are forecasting slightly above average snowfall this year. This means 15-20" along and to the SE of I-95, 20-30" to the NW of I-95, and 30-40" across northern and west central MD. We expect the first winter weather event to be sometime in December, but more than likely it won't be a significant one. Anything significant, and most of the snow for that matter should hold off until January. The snowiest period is expected to be Late January through February, with one or 2 significant snow storms possible.

Please keep in mind that seasonal forecasts are the lowest confidence forecasts produced by any forecaster. It is especially difficult to produce an accurate forecast for an entire season in the Mid Atlantic, but we feel this year has a fairly strong signal for snow that it was worth putting this forecast out. It will be interesting to see how well it does come spring, so be sure to keep track of totals at your house and send reports our way!

Forecaster Jack and the CMD team. 



Image 1 credit: NOAA
​Image 2 credit: Rutgers University