disruptive thanksgiving week storm becoming more likely; air travel most at risk of delays

A large low pressure system will overspread the eastern third of the country with a strong wind field as well as expansive swath of rain (some heavy). Travel impacts next week (Tuesday and Wednesday in our area) are increasingly likely, though significant impacts are not anticipated in our area. 

A widespread swath of rain is anticipated with this system with all of our area likely picking up on at least an inch of rain, with some potential for localized amounts of up to 2" if thunderstorms develop. Below is a rainfall projection off the EURO model showing a widespread 1-1.5 inch rain event with locally higher amounts. Flooding is not expected to be an issue with this system, and we need all the rain we can get. 

Additionally, a strong windfield will be associated with this system which will bring gusty winds to our area. Winds at about 5 thousand feet are expected to be in the 60-70kt range, which will lead to surface gusts of 30-40mph. This will not lead to widespread damage, but it will lead to a nasty time spent outdoors. Below is the EURO wind gust forecast for peak gusts. 

As far as timing goes, rain looks to begin sometime on tuesday (GFS shows early morning, EURO shows late afternoon/early evening). If the GFS is right (which im extremely doubtful of), some snow may mix in at the onset (no accumulation), especially across NW areas. 

Overall, the impacts to our area look to be not significant. More substantial impacts, particularly with air travel look to occur to our north and west, closer to the center of the low pressure. All the rain and wind will be long gone by Thanksgiving, leaving us with much cooler and breezy conditions for Turkey Day.

Forecaster Jack.