EARLY LOOK AT THE THANKSGIVING WEEK FORECAST: UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED, BUT DON'T CHANGE ANY PLANS...

It's becoming more likely that a storm system will impact the east coast between the 21st and 22nd with rain and wind. There is still a lot of uncertainty this far out with substantial disagreement within the model data regarding timing, intensity, and location of this storm system. 

First we will talk about the GFS model and its forecast. It shows a widespread light to moderate rain event with the bulk of the precipitation falling overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning, with accumulations of 1/2 to 1 inch. Additionally, the GFS only shows wind gusts in the 15-20mph range thanks to a weaker system overall. This would result in minimal impacts to travel due to the fact that the most rain will fall overnight and there will be very little in the way of wind.

We then look towards the EURO which tends to be a little more accurate at this range compared to the GFS. It too has the heaviest/most widespread rain falling Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. In total, its painting slightly higher  rainfall totals with 3/4 of an inch to 1.25 inches falling. Additionally, it has a slightly stronger system with a stronger low level jet. This would lead to heavier precipitation, warmer temperatures, and stronger winds. In this scenario, we could see wind gusts of 30-40mph. This would lead to slightly higher impacts due to both the much larger size of the storm as well as the stronger winds.  

All in all, next week does look unsettled. However by no means does anyone need to change plans at this point as its far too early to pinpoint any details. For now, just stay tuned and we will be sure to update you with any changes to the forecast as they become necessary. 

Forecaster Jack