First Call For Sunday's Snow Event

Confidence continues to increase in an accumulating and possibly impactful snow event on Sunday, with most models now agreeing in a few to possibly several inches of snow accumulation for most of the area. With that being said, there remains some discrepancies and complications that lead to some uncertainties and lower confidence in the forecast.

SATURDAY TEMPS

One of the complicating factors is temperatures, particularly on Saturday. We expect high temps in the low 40s on Saturday. This will warm the ground enough so that the first flakes that fall on Sunday will probably melt and not stick. In addition, rain is likely at times on Saturday. And while we don't expect a lot of rain, it will be enough to wet the ground, which also helps with melting. 

Storm track

There is also uncertainty in the storm track, with all 3 longer range models showing slightly differnet scenarios, which in turn, will impact how much snow we get. The EURO model has the low pressure off shore far enough to where we only get 1-2" of snow, with no mixing. The GFS is slightly further inland, with a general 3-6" of snow and a little mixing SE of I-95. And the GEM is way inland, with 5-10" of snow in our northern areas, with plain rain elsewhere. 

We think the GEM is way too far inland, and that scenario doesn't really make too much sense. The EURO is plausible, but the GFS is a nice middle ground. Even so, we think those numbers are a little too high due to the melting we discussed earlier. There is another outcome, shown by the NAM, which takes the low so far off the coast that it leaves us with flurries at most. This is possible, but like the GEM, we think its unlikely and that it is too far offshore. However, this would be a bust scenario to keep an eye on if this were to occur. 

For now, we will forecast a widespread 2-4" of snow across most of the area north and west of a line from Bowie to Annapolis, with a coating to 2" further south and east where there could be some mixing as well as warmer temps. Within the 2-4" zone, an isolated amount up to 5" cannot be ruled out. 

In future updates, its likely that there will be some changes to this forecast, which could include either an increase or decrease in the expected accumulations. We encourage you to use caution when you see other snowfall maps this early on calling for much larger totals, as they do not take into account the aforementioned uncertainties and complexities that will impact how much snow actually accumulates. 

As far as timing goes, snow will overspread the area from southwest to northeast during the early and mid morning hours on Sunday, and continue throughout most if not the entire day. Snow may become moderate to heavy at times. Snow should taper off during the evening hours. The most widespread and "heaviest" snow should be from late morning through early and mid afternoon. 

This will likely result in hazardous travel due to slick and in some cases snow covered roadways. Visibility may be reduced at times due to snowfall rates of up to 1" per hour, especially from mid morning through mid afternoon. No alerts from NWS are currently in effect, although a winter weather advisory is likely to be issued tonight or Saturday morning in advance of this system, and if the storm trends stronger, winter storm watches cannot be ruled out.