Higher than normal risk of downed trees monday morning along with a risk for flooding

VERY heavy rainfall is expected Sunday night into very early Monday morning. Rainfall rates of 1-2" per hour are possible as the area of low pressure moves up the coast over the DelMarVa. This will result in widespread 2-3" rainfall amounts with a chance for some 3-4" amounts as well, particularly across central MD. This will likely result in some flooding of creeks, streams, and low lying areas. For this reason, a FLOOD WATCH has been issued for most of our area (Carroll county and points east). I expect the heaviest rain to fall from 9pm until 4am Sun night/Mon morning.

Below is the NWS rainfall forecast from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning.

In addition, strong winds are likely behind this system Monday morning, with the strongest being from 6am until 12pm. This is when gusts could top 40-45mph, locally up to 50mph in some spots. While a wind advisory may be needed, the short duration is more likely to prompt a special weather statement. 

I want to emphasize the risk of falling trees with this event. There is a higher than normal risk of downed trees because the strongest winds will come after the heavy rain has saturated the soil. The ground will be very wet and that will make it easier for trees to fall. This may also impact the morning commute on Monday because some trees may block roads and there could also be scattered power outages if trees fall on powerlines. 

If you live in an area that is wooded or near large trees, consider staying in the lower levels of your home during this time. Everyone should keep their phones charged, and prepare for some power outages.

The image below is an estimation from the HRRR model of potential wind gusts Monday morning at 9am.