impactful storm system may bring effects to our region on Sunday/Monday of next week.

A strengthening area of low pressure will track west of the Appalachian mountains and into new England this weekend into next week. This puts us in the warm sector with temperatures running well above normal. Due to the warmer temps, any precipitation will fall as rain, some of which could be moderate to heavy in any thunderstorms that form. For snow lovers, this is not the storm for you.

Below you can see the European model forecast for precipitation type on Sunday late at night. Notice how strong the center of low pressure is (983mb), this will come into play later.

A strong wind field will accompany this system (60-70kt LLJ) leading to a very dynamic storm system. Depending on the exact strength, how stable the air is, and a few other factors, there could be strong surface winds over 40mph. If the air is unstable, then winds will be stronger. But if we are stable, and the LLJ is weaker, then winds may not gust over 40mph at all. This leads to uncertainty, but strong winds are certainly a possibility, with gusts of at least 30-40mph likely. 

Below is the European model forecast of POSSIBLE wind gusts if we destabilize. Again, this is just a POTENTIAL, and not a guarantee, but it shows a "worst case scenario".

In addition, some risk of severe weather may develop given how strong the wind profiles will be. The aforementioned LLJ will lead to very strong wind shear on the order of 65-70kts. This is more than enough to support severe weather. The question that leads to uncertainty is how much, if any instability develops. It wont take much given the strong shear and deepening area of low pressure to our NW, but we will  need at least some. The Euro is far more bullish on instability with several hundred j/kg of CAPE, where the GFS shows practically nothing. If the EURO is right, then a line of strong to severe storms with potential for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes COULD occur. We will monitor this potential threat over the coming days. 

Below is the EURO showing a line of thunderstorms late Sunday night along with the expected wind shear. Keep in mind radar wont look exactly like this and this is only a model guess, not an actual forecast. 

Right now, there is absolutely nothing to be concerned about. There is plenty of time for this to change, and so right now we are just in a watching stage. What we can say for sure is that an impactful storm system does look to affect the eastern third of the country, but exact impacts to our area are still very uncertain. We will continue to monitor the model trends over the next several days and keep you posted should any updates be required. 

Forecaster Jack