Nor'easter likely to bring strong winds and heavy rain to the mid atlantic

A strong area of low pressure will impact our area on Sunday and into Monday of next week with rain and wind. Models have come into agreement that a strong storm system will develop and track through the Carolinas and into our area, rather than staying off the coast. Models also agree that it will be a fairly strong system, with the EURO showing a 985mb low, and the GFS showing a 988mb low. WPC is following this trend, with a 988 low overhead on Monday early morning. This strength of a storm will lead to a tight pressure gradient overhead.

As far as rainfall is concerned, widespread showers and some downpours are expected most of Sunday and into Monday, but exact timing is still uncertain. The GFS (left) and the EURO (right) are also now in agreement as of the 12z data set with 2-3" of rain from this system. Some areas may get a little less, but a general 1-2" is likely to fall across our entire area. Given the amount of rain we have seen with the last 2 systems, there could be a risk of some flooding and a flood watch may be required. 

There could also be a strong wind component with this as the LLJ strengthens and a strong pressure gradient develops over our area. The GFS (left) and EURO (right) again both agree on strong winds across our area with the strongest along the coast where the LLJ will be stronger. For the GFS, it shows wind gusts 40-50mph across our area with gusts 50-60mph along the coast. The EURO shows 40-45mph winds in our area with 45-50mph gusts along the coast. For now, we will forecast gusts up to 40mph for our area which may result in isolated wind damage. I will say, confidence is very low in the wind forecast, as the last several systems have not performed like the models showed in regards to wind. 

It will also get quite cold following this system with highs on Tuesday only in the 30s and wind chills in the 20s. All in all, an impactful storm seems likely with heavy rain and strong winds possible. Increases and decreases to both the wind and the rain forecast are still possible as we are 3 days out and there is still variability in the model data. Stay tuned to the forecast over the coming days.