Models are getting into slightly better agreement in terms of a possible severe weather risk this coming Sunday. There are a lot of similarities to this event with the one we had on December 11th where several tornadic circulations produced damage in portions of the area. As of now, the area with the highest potential for severe weather appears to be along and east of the US Rt.15 corridor including the Baltimore and Washington metro areas. The main hazards would be embedded areas of 50-60mph wind gusts, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out if this comes to fruition. 

The image above is a sounding over central MD as depicted by the EURO model. Similarly to the event earlier this month, there is extreme low level wind shear, and very favorable curved AND stretched hodograph. This is thanks to a strong 50-60kt LLJ above our heads. This will allow any surface based storms to exhibit rotation. Temperatures are well above normal, at least in the mid 50s, but possibly as high as around 60 degrees especially if the storm timing is a bit earlier. This will lead to low but not 0 instability, and with the amount of shear present, it wont take much to produce severe weather. 

One thing that is not as favorable a the one earlier this month is the LCL levels. They are higher with this event, and that leads to a slightly lower severe weather risk. Still, with the aforementioned extreme shear, there certainly is a risk of severe weather. Its likely that a line of low topped downpours and embedded thunderstorms will form along the cold front sometime Sunday afternoon or evening. The earlier this occurs, the higher the risk of severe weather will be. 

Other models (the GFS and GEM) are less aggressive, especially the GEM. But the GFS looks to be trending towards the more reliable EURO model which increases confidence. If this continues, then SPC may issue a level 1/5 marginal risk of severe weather. With still 4 days of time ahead of this, there is time for change. But there is fairly high confidence in at least a low end severe weather risk. Heavy rain will also be a concern, with 1-3" not out of the question. 

We will have a better idea on what to expect on Friday, as we will start to be in range of the higher resolution short range models. 

A weak disturbance will pass mainly north of our area on Christmas eve, but there may be enough moisture and cold air around to produce some light snow mainly NW of I95 Tuesday morning. We don't anticipate much if any accumulations (we will get into those details on Sunday), but some festive flakes are possible. At this point, it looks to be about a 30% chance of light snow. So we aren't looking at a white Christmas, but it will be fun to look at if this comes to fruition. 

Extreme cold will overtake the area this weekend as well as Monday, with the coldest being Sunday. Sunday morning wind chills will drop to near 0 in some areas, with highs staying below freezing across the entire area. Sunday night lows will likely drop into the single digits, with single digit wind chills likely once again. This type of cold will result in frost bite so please take precautions and dress appropriately. 

And remember, leaving animals out in this weather is a CRIME in Maryland. There is NO excuse for your pets to be left out in this weather for any length of time unattended. 

It wont be too bad this week, with only a slight chance for winter precip on Friday. And overall, a fairly mild week as far as temps go, with Tuesday being very warm and a great day to spend outdoors. 

But as an early heads up, Saturday, and especially Sunday/Monday of next week are going to be BRUTALLY cold. Highs could be in the 20s with lows in the teens and single digit morning wind chills. 

Thanks to everyone who has been commenting and giving us ideas over the last few days! They have been extremely helpful. We have narrowed the most wanted items down to 4. A long sleeved T shirt, a metal insulated water bottle, a umbrella, and a magnet. 

At this time, we aren't making any promises, and this is all just to test the waters to see what people may be interested in. After our polls about the app vs emails, it was very clear that the vast majority of you would rather us spend time on merch instead. We don't know for sure if or when we will do merch again, but all of your input has been very helpful. 

Keep in mind, it costs money for all of these things to be made. So while $35 may seem like a lot for a water bottle, it costs near $30 to make just one. So we have to charge an additional 20-30% to account for shipping costs, packing time (As we will be doing this by hand), as well as the cost of making them in order for us to make any profit. Hopefully that answers some of your questions about pricing. 

Not too much change to our final call for tomorrow’s system. Still expect a dusting to 1” of snow west of Frederick, along with a trace of ice mainly above 800 feet of elevation. An isolated amount of up to 2" cannot be ruled out west of Hagerstown. A winter weather advisory has been issued for Washington, Berkeley, and Morgan counties in our far western zones. This is where minor travel disruptions are possible. Elsewhere, plain rain is expected with perhaps a brief mix of wet snow or sleet but no accumulation. ​

Lets first start off by saying this will not be a major winter weather event, and there will be no impacts east of the Catoctin Mountains. 

Precipitation will start from SW-NE in the afternoon and last into the night. While areas east of Frederick will stay all rain, some areas in higher elevations out west will see a mix of snow and freezing rain, which could cause travel disruptions. This may require the issuance of a winter weather advisory for the WV panhandle as well as Washington county MD depending on how cold the air remains for how long, which is still unknown. Precipitation should come to an end by early Monday morning.  

In total, a general coating to inch of snow is expected for the Catoctin mountains, much of Washington county, and the WV panhandle. In addition, there could be a trace of ice accumulation as a result of freezing rain, mainly for elevations above 800 feet. Below is our first call on snow and ice amounts. Again, this is not a significant storm, but the combo of light snow and some ice can cause travel disruptions for our far western zones.

Friday and Saturday both look nice but also cold with highs barely passing 40 in the warmest areas. 
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Rain returns on Sunday and there could be a light wintry mix NW of I-95 but no accumulation is expected.

​Shower's remain in the forecast through Tuesday, when high temps could reach the low 60s in some areas.

A strong cold front, along with an area of low pressure will move through the area on Wednesday. But before that, a warm front will move from SW-NE across our area with an initial round of rain. 

For Monday, widespread showers are expected across the area, mainly from mid morning until early afternoon. For the most part, the rain will be light in intensity, and only add up to about 1/4 inch or less. 

By Tuesday evening, rain will once again overspread the area, becoming moderate to even heavy at times by Wednesday afternoon. Given the dynamics with this storm system, a few rumbles of thunder cant be ruled out. Rain will peak in coverage and intensity Wednesday afternoon and evening, and may briefly change to light snow NW of I-95 overnight, however we do not anticipate any accumulations. Additional rainfall totals of 1-2" are likely.

In total, 2 inches or more appear likely along and east of Rt.15, with 1-2 inches likely west of there. Most of this will fall on Wednesday, and the rainfall may be heavy at times. But because of the moderate to severe drought, we do not anticipate any flooding at this time. 

Temperatures will fall significantly behind the cold front, with highs in the 30s for Thursday and Friday along with wind gusts of 30-40mph, maybe higher. So it will definitely feel much more like winter compared to the first part of the week.

NOTE: You may notice that we have added a few counties in northern VA and the panhandle of WV to our map! We are testing a slight expansion of our coverage area since we know many of you that watch us live in these added areas. It is not a guarantee that these areas will be permanently added to our coverage area, but we do want to hear your thoughts. 

After a bumpy 24 hours, we can take a big sigh of relief as we have several days of calm and dry weather. That said, another storm system will move into our area early next week, with both dramatically warmer temperatures as well has high chances for rain. Which we still need BTW, as the entire area is in a moderate to severe drought. 

Below are some of the measured wind gusts from Thursday December 5th across the area. Widespread 45-50mph gusts were common, with a few 55-60+mph gusts in the higher elevations.