Showers and strong storms possible on Tuesday, followed by gusty winds on Wednesday

3:57PM 12/30/24 - A storm system will bring thunderstorms and strong winds to the area on Tuesday and also Wednesday.
A low pressure system will bring a strong low level wind field to the area on Tuesday. The wind profiles are favorable for the development of thunderstorms. Instability is weak, but steep lapse rates will lead to the potential for strong wind gusts in any heavy shower or storms. A few lightning strikes and even some hail is possible given the steep lapse rates and strong wind fields. We don't think there will be much severe weather, but some of the hail or wind gusts could be near severe caliber (58mph or 1" in diameter). The most likely timing for any thunderstorm will be from 5pm until 10pm.

On Wednesday, the strong wind field will remain, and there will be a tightening pressure gradient. These 2 parameters are favorable for strong wind gusts across much of the area. 850mb winds will run between 45 and 50kts, with decent mixing of the boundary layer. This means that some of that wind will transfer to the surface. The current forecast calls for peak gusts of 35-45mph across most of the area, with gusts near 50mph in the higher elevations. Some model data suggests that winds could reach advisory level of >45mph across much of the area, and a wind advisory may be required if confidence increases. This could result in minor tree and power line damage and a few power outages.

This week, we will discuss the upcoming pattern change as well as increasing chances for snow and very cold temperatures.
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Senior Forecaster Jack