sloppy mess of a storm for saturday, still some uncertainty but its not looking good for snow lovers...

Good afternoon! Today, we have a much more detailed post for you with 3 possible scenarios as to how this storm could play out. But first, lets talk about what we know and what we don't know.

We know that this storm has ample moisture. Liquid equivalents (QPF) are between 1/2" and 1". We know that the storm will have a tight gradient between who gets all rain and who gets accumulating snow. We also know that the last 48 hours have not shown a great trend for snow lovers, which is why we still have not put out a first call. We also know that areas SE of I-95 are more than likely getting just rain.
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We don't know the exact track yet. We also don't know exactly where the rain snow line will set up, which will have big implications when it comes to potential accumulations. We also don't know exact timing yet, though it seems to have sped up, now looking more like the precip will start late morning or early afternoon on Saturday and finish late evening.

​For now, NWS keeps area NW of I-95 in an enhanced risk for accumulating snow seen below

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As far as scenarios go, there are 3:
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Scenario 1: This is the most likely outcome as of now based off the latest trends. This scenario brings in the storm the earliest, the furthest NW, and the weakest. This would mean a brief period of snow for areas NW of I-95 before changing at least to a mix, if not all rain. There could be minor accumulations NW of the 95 corridor, but not much with this scenario, which has a 60% chance of occurring at this point.

Scenario 2: This is the 2nd most likely scenario, which is what models showed a few days ago. This leads to a further off shore track, slightly stronger system, and a start time late in the evening with the heaviest overnight. If this were to occur, then heavy snow would spread as far east as cities such as Manchester, Mount Airy, and Damascus, with moderate snow to the I-95 corridor. More substantial accumulations would be possible with this type of scenario, and we give this a 30% chance of occurring. ​

Scenario 3: This is the least likely scenario, which puts the heaviest snow right over the I-95 corridor, with moderate snow as far east as the eastern shore. In order for this to happen, we would need a track well off shore, much colder air, and a stronger system, but that is not likely to happen. Major snow accumulations would occur with this, but its only a 10% chance of occurring, meaning there is a 90% chance this DOESNT occur.

All in all, it seems the best chance of snow will be in extreme northern and western MD and into southern and central PA where a few to several inches could fall. Its very likely that most of our area only sees minor accumulations NW of 95, with just rain to the SE. We will fine tune the forecast over the coming days and will issue a first call Thursday AM after the next set of model data comes in.
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Forecaster Jack and the CMD team.