Snow chances early next week: Not at all a guarantee, but the pattern looks good

We have been closely monitoring model data over he last few days and its pretty clear that there is a "threat" of some winter weather on Monday of next week (about 6 days out). Obviously, it is way too early to give specific details, and anyone who is already posting snowfall maps is simply irresponsible. There is no skill in snowfall forecasts more than 3 days out, so its way too early for details. 

What we can talk about is potential. Models have been consistent about the POTENTIAL for accumulating snow Monday of next week. As of now, this does not look like a major snow storm (that could change). But there does seem to be a decent chance for the first legitimate, meaning more than a dusting, accumulation of snow of the season. That said, there is still disagreement within the models, which is to be expected this far out, and will continue for a few more days.

While there is a chance for snow area wide, the best chance will be across north central, northern, and western MD, northern VA, and the panhandle of WV. Temperatures in these areas look to be at or below freezing, so that is favorable for snow if this system does materialize. As of now, there is about a 50% chance for accumulating snow in these aforementioned areas, and about a 30% chance for the rest of the area. This is a very early look at the situation, and its very likely to change. There is a chance that the system doesn't even materialize, a chance that it does materialize but passes well to our south or out to sea, or it materializes and takes a track just south of us allowing potential for winter weather. We simply cannot provide any other information than this, this early in the game. We will know much more later this week, and you should expect an update late on Thursday, as that will put us within 4 days of this threat.