Threat for severe weather on thursday

11:56PM 5/20/24 - While the next few days will be very nice (albeit increasingly summer like), Thursday poses a risk of severe weather across a large portion of the mid Atlantic and north east.

Temperatures Thursday will be in the low-mid 80s with dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s. If the early morning clouds clear out and we break into sun for a while, the atmosphere will destabilize quite a bit. Current model data suggests 1,500 j/kg of surface based CAPE, if not higher. When combined with about 30kts of shear and a strong cold front, you can expect at least isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

The main hazard will be damaging winds that could exceed 50-60mph in the strongest storms. But large hail or even an isolated tornado cant be ruled out, especially if any boundaries are left over from the isolated storms we may see Wednesday night. Heavy rain and frequent lightning are possible with any storm that forms.

There is still some uncertainties in the forecast given we are about 3-4 days out and the clouds may stick around longer than anticipated. While there is currently no areas outlooked by SPC, I suspect that they will add our area to a marginal risk (level 1/5) at least at the next update early tomorrow morning. So be sure to continue to monitor the forecast over the next few days.
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Forecaster Jack