weekly forecast and chance of severe weather thursday and saturday

WED: Mostly sunny skies with increasing temps peaking in the upper 80s to around 90. Luckily the humidity holds off for one more day. Winds will turn to the SE sustained at 5-10mph and gust up to 20mph at times. No precipitation is expected on Wednesday. Lows will drop into the upper 60s to low 70s.

THUR: Hot and humid with temps into the low-mid 90s under partly to mostly sunny skies. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely during the afternoon and evening, a few of which could be severe and impact outdoor plans. With the humidity, the heat index will range from 97-102 in most spots. Chance of rain is 60% and low temps will only fall into the mid 70s in most areas.

FRI: Another hot and humid day with sunny skies and heat index values around or over 100 degrees. An isolated afternoon storm is possible, but most areas will be dry. Any storm will produce heavy rain and lightning but severe weather is not currently expected. Chance of rain is 40%. Lows will fall into the 70s to perhaps near 80 in the city areas. 

SAT: Hot, humid, and stormy, but again not a washout. Highs in the 90s again. Similar to Thu/Fri, scattered afternoon storms are possible and these could be severe (see more on this below). Heat index values at or above 100 degrees seem likely given the humidity. Chance of rain is 60%. Low temps will fall into the low-mid 70s for most.

SUN: Overall a nicer day than Saturday with sunny skies and slightly lower humidity. We cant rule out an isolated PM storm but chances are much lower only at about 20%. High temps will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s.Winds will be light and variable as a cold front slides through. Low temps Sunday night fall into the low-mid 70s so not much impact from the cold front. 

MON: Another hot day and humid one at that as well with a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Highs will range from 90-95 degrees with a heat index around 100. That said, plenty of sunshine is also expected. The chance of rain is 30%, and low temps will fall into the 60s and 70s.

For Thursday, subtle forcing from a cold front to our west and a lee trough over the I-81 corridor should spark a few scattered showers and thunderstorms across the area tracking west to east between the hours of 2pm and 8pm. Temperatures should reach the 90s with dew points in the low-mid 70s will lead to plenty of instability. The overall forcing and wind shear isn't to impressive, with less than 30kts of bulk shear and lapse rates are also poor. But some of the storms could produce isolated wind damage due to gusts in the 40-60mph range. For this reason, SPC has the entire area in a level 1/5 risk for severe weather. Thunderstorms will likely produce copious rainfall rates. While this could certainly have impacts to fireworks and celebrations, many areas wont see any rain at all.  

On Saturday, an actual cold front will be moving through, colliding with a hot and humid airmass. Wind shear and forcing will both be stronger on Saturday, and there will be ample instability. While there is still some uncertainty, it seems likely that Saturday will have the best chance of severe weather this week.