Happy first day of March! It is the beginning of meteorological spring (meteorological seasons are defined on a calendar basis, with spring being from March 1 through May 31). March is also known for having wild temperature swings and plenty of windy days in Southern MD.
Those exact conditions will play out in a defining way this weekend. The National Weather Service has issued a Red Flag Warning from 10AM through 7PM today. It will become increasingly windy with wind gusts to 35 mph. Combined with low humidity and a lack of significant precipitation over the past 10 days, there will be an increased threat for any fires to rapidly spread.
While temperatures will peak around 60° around noon, temperatures will plummet starting later this afternoon and continuing into the overnight. We will be down into the 30s by mid evening, and morning lows on Sunday will be in the mid 20s. Gusty winds will continue during this time.
For the rest of the day on Sunday, temperatures will only make it to the upper 30s. There will be enough of a breeze around to keep wind chills below freezing most of the day. Skies will be sunny.
We will be on a warming trend Monday into Tuesday. A strong storm system will impact the region on Wednesday. The potential exists for multiple hazards, including heavy rain, strong winds, and even severe thunderstorms.
​Forecaster Jason 

While temperatures reached the 60s this Tuesday in Southern MD, winter is making a sharp return, with colder temperatures and possibly wintry precipitation on the way.
A surge of arctic air is pouring into the region tonight. Wednesday will start off with morning lows in the lower 30s, and afternoon highs will only be in the mid 30s. A storm system from the west will make its way into the area later in the afternoon into the evening. There may be a passing snow or sleet shower in the afternoon.
A higher chance for precipitation will come in the evening, which looks to be in the form of a wintry mix. This may be more of a rain event for southern St. Mary’s, but for the rest of the area, light wintry impacts from ice are possible. There may be both sleet (ice pellets) and freezing rain (rain which leaves a glaze of ice).
Precipitation may change to all rain later in the night over the rest of St. Mary’s and for southern Calvert. However, this is a situation with temperatures throughout portions of the atmosphere will be right around 32°, which makes for a tricky situation. For Charles and northern Calvert, I do think icy conditions may linger until around or just after sunrise on Thursday.
Temperatures are expected to reach the mid 40s on Thursday. With additional waves of energy moving through, we will have plain rain during the day.
Friday will be dry with some sunshine. High temperatures will be around 50°, but it will feel cooler with breezy northwest winds. Another system may impact the area on Saturday with rain or a rain/snow mix.
There are indications that a winter storm may impact our area during the first half of next week.

​Forecaster Jason 

While this week will end on a relatively mild note in Southern MD with temperatures in the 40s on Saturday, a storm system will track through on Sunday that may bring wintry precipitation.  
A cold front will cross the region Saturday night, while a storm system begins to organize to our south. This will end up being a fast-moving coastal storm. As with many of these storms, it does appear as though the rain/snow line may set up right around this area. At this point, I think we will have a rain/snow mix Sunday morning with temperatures in the 30s. There is a good chance that precipitation will end Sunday evening as all snow.  
While I am not expecting substantial snowfall accumulations in this area, I do think around an inch of snow is a good possibility. However, I will note that there are still other scenarios. Some computer models take the storm on a more inland track. This would put the rain/ snow line around the DC metro. In this scenario we would see very little if any snow. On the other end, a 75 mile shift in the track to the south and east would give us closer to 3" of snow. 
Once this storm clears out, we will be set for the coldest airmass in years. By Tuesday, actual air temperatures will struggle to get out of the teens, and overnight lows will be in the single digits. I am also following the potential for a winter storm to track through the Deep South Tuesday night. We will have to see how far north snow from this storm will make it. 
​Forecaster Jason 

Frigid temperatures have settled back in this Tuesday in Southern MD, and we are beginning an extended stretch of brutally cold temperatures. While the temperature at the Pax River base reached 49° on Monday, there will not be that many more opportunities for temperatures to get anywhere close for the rest of January.
Flurries or a brief snow shower will be possible this Tuesday evening. I am not expecting any real snowfall accumulation, although I would not rule out a light dusting in some spots. Temperatures overnight will bottom out in the upper teens.
Wednesday will be windy and quite cold with high temperatures only reaching around 30°. Wind chills will stay in the teens. Skies will be sunny. Thursday, we will start off in the mid teens, with afternoon highs in the mid 30s. There will be more clouds around due to a system passing by to the north.
We may be able to get into the lower 40s on Friday. A series of storm systems will head into the region over the weekend. There will be a chance for rain on Saturday. Rain chances may linger into Sunday, but there will also be the possibility for rain to end as snow. Intense arctic air will then follow early next week.
Forecaster Jason 

The current trend in the latest computer model guidance is for a slight southern shift in the storm track for the upcoming winter storm. This will be a relatively long duration event with snow likely to begin around midnight Sunday night, and clearing out Monday night. There does still look to be a good chance for sleet, freezing rain, and possibly just plain rain to mix in for a portion of the day on Monday in Southern MD. However, current indications are that there will still be a long enough period of all snow at the beginning and end of the event to make this a decent snowstorm here.
There is some question as to whether the heaviest band of snow sets up over the DC metro area, or further south in Southern MD. Right now I am leaning towards the heaviest snow being around DC. However, if the storm tracks a bit further south, then Southern MD would get clobbered with higher totals than what I am forecasting right now. Wherever the heaviest band of snow sets up, snowfall totals may reach double digits.
Either way, it is looking like this will be an impactful storm for the entire area. With the cold airmass in place and the nighttime arrival, snow will stick to all untreated surfaces. In addition, some ice accretion from freezing rain cannot be ruled out. All of this will make for dangerous travel conditions on Monday.
Forecaster Jason 
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A storm system from the South will impact the Mid Atlantic Sunday night into Monday. With a frigid airmass in place this weekend, snow is expected in many areas. However, as is often the case with winter storms in Southern MD, current indications are that the rain/snow may set up near or over us.
SCENARIOS: If the storm tracks along the southern edge of what is being shown in the computer models, then Southern MD would have mostly snow for the event. In this scenario, there would be enough moisture for several inches of snow. A more northern track would lead to a bit of snow falling at the onset, followed by a quick transition to rain. Any snowfall accumulations would be minor. A third scenario would be in between these two, with light snowfall accumulations followed by mixed precipitation.
I will add that depending on which scenario pans out, there could be a significant difference in impacts between northern Charles/northern Calvert and southern St. Mary’s.
TIMING: At this point, computer models indicate snow beginning Sunday evening. There is some uncertainty as to whether precipitation would clear out by Monday afternoon, or if it would linger into Monday evening.
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​Forecaster Jason 

A prolonged stretch of frigid temperatures will settle in later this week for Southern MD, while there will be chances for snow over the next couple weeks.
As of mid to late afternoon this New Year’s Eve, a dynamic weather system is barreling towards the area. This will help set the stage for the upcoming pattern change. A line of strong showers and thunderstorms is tracking towards the area from central Virginia. This activity will sweep through our area in the 5PM-7PM timeframe.
The rest of the evening and overnight is looking drier. Temperatures currently in the 50s will fall into the mid 40s by late tonight. New Year’s Day will be cooler and quite windy. The National Weather Service has posted a Wind Advisory for the immediate DC metro, as wind gusts to 50 mph will be possible. Further south into Southern MD, wind gusts to 40 mph can be expected. High temperatures will be around 50° with sunshine. However, it will feel colder with the wind.
Thursday, high temperatures will only be around 40°. While it will not be quite as windy as on Wednesday, there will be enough wind to keep wind chills below the freezing mark.
A weak disturbance looks to cross the region late on Friday, possibly bringing a rain or snow shower. The weekend is looking cold and dry. Heading into Monday, a storm system from the south will be heading towards the East Coast. Right now it looks as though temperatures will be below freezing in our area on Monday. I will be watching to see whether this system tracks close enough for snow.
​Forecaster Jason 

While it has been mostly dry for the past few days in Southern MD, we will transition to a wetter pattern as we get closer to New Years.
For this Thursday, temperatures are heading up into the upper 40s. The extensive cloud coverage is due to a marine layer that has pushed in from the Atlantic. Some of these clouds may break up towards the end of the day. There will not be much change in our weather for Friday. Temperatures will start off around 30°, and afternoon highs will be in the mid 40s. Expect partial sunshine.
The first in a series of storm systems will pass through on Saturday, bringing showers at times during the day. Temperatures will top out around 50°. There may be a break in the rain early Sunday morning, but a stronger system will impact the region by the afternoon with more rain. It will also be breezy and warmer as temperatures head up to around 60°.
Right now, much of Monday and Tuesday look dry, but another chance for rain may come by the night of New Years. Mild temperatures will remain with highs well into the 50s.

​Forecaster Jason 

The arctic airmass in place this weekend will remain with us heading into Monday. Temperatures early Monday morning will dip down into the upper teens in Southern MD. Expect plenty of sunshine again during the day with high temperatures in the upper 30s.
A weak system will slide by to our north on Christmas Eve. This may provide a few sprinkles, but otherwise expect some cloudiness in the morning. Temperatures will head up into the lower 40s.
Christmas Day will start off with lows around 30°, and temperatures will top out in the mid 40s in the afternoon. There will be a mix of sun and clouds.
Dry and cool conditions will remain into Thursday and likely Friday. There may be a chance for rain by next weekend.
​Forecaster Jason